Monday, June 1, 2009

North Korea, Nukes and the Missile defense shield.....




There are two forces at work here. North Korea's neighbors are now formulating a strategy to counter a clear cut case of nuclear proliferation in their "neighborhood". They are united in their opposition, but they will now have to agree upon a universal course of action.... This will take some time. The wild card is Japan. If North Korea has a developing and growing nuclear weapons program, Japan may be inclined to change their constitution and start their own nuclear weapons program .... a feat that can be done very quickly. This change in policy will send shock waves throughout Asia....

The other "force" is in the Middle East....

Iran is now looking at developments in Asia, and are realizing that the cost of having a nuclear weapons program is not that steep .... if there is a cost at all... In turn, I believe that this will only embolden the Iranian Government to speedup and pursue their own program ..... and they will do so in the open. The wild card is Israel, and on how they may react .... but for the moment the Iranians are looking at Asia.

The development of an Iranian nuclear weapons program will also change the dynamics of the region appreciably. Do not be surprised if Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt start to develop their own programs also .... and they will do so with the blessings of Europe and from the U.S.A.... This will also send shock waves throughout the region....

......North Korea’s latest round of saber-rattling will be front and center in the coming national debate over missile defense, perhaps prompting some lawmakers to think twice about the Obama administration’s plan to reshape the military.

After the hermetic Stalinist country set off a nuclear device and test-fired several short-range missiles this week, conservative lawmakers and former officials linked the event to their decades-long drive to increase funding and support for a worldwide missile “shield” designed to detect and destroy ballistic missiles fired at the United States or its allies....

.....The original purpose for the U.S. missile defense program was to never be a counter to the then Soviet Union as such....?, but to be used as a tool against rogue nations like North Korea and their missile programs. In short .... the missile program was never envisioned to stop hundreds of missiles .... but to stop a few from a smaller power.

This is the debate that is now going to happen .... and for proponents of the U.S. Missile Defense program .... they definitely now feel comfortable (thanks to North Korea) that they can make their case.....

http://www.janes.com/defence/naval_forces/news/misc/aegis010425.shtml