Iran's cunning power play: They will get a nuke not with a bang, but with a whimper

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/20/AR2010042004292.html

http://opinion-maker.org/2010/04/mcchrystal-lost-in-afghanistan-is-ignorance-the-real-excuse/

http://www.cf2r.org/fr/notes-actualite/la-doctrine-asymetrique-des-forces-iraniennes.php

By Robert Baer

The Obama administration is finally coming around to the alarming conclusion it has no idea what to do about Iran's nuclear bomb. The admission comes in the guise of a just-revealed top-secret memorandum sent by Defense Secretary Robert Gates to the White House in January, which, according to press leaks, made the case that the U.S. possesses no long-term, effective policy to stop Iran from building a nuclear bomb. Although a lot of people arrived at the same conclusion a long time ago, it's the first time it has been given an official imprimatur at this high of a level.

In reaction to the leak, Gates released a statement explaining that the absence of a policy vis-a-vis Iran's nuke has nothing to do with negligence but rather with the grim reality that there are simply no good options here. In other words, short of war, Iran cannot be stopped...

http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=21304

He's right. In all fairness to this administration and previous administrations that tried to do something about Iran's bomb, the Iranians have played the game brilliantly. Early on they understood that a lot of countries were willing to evade the spirit of sanctions or just cheat. And it wasn't just China and Russia enabling their bad behavior. The United Arab Emirates, one of America's closest allies in the Persian Gulf, has been an egregious sanction buster.

Iran understood its trump card was that there never would be real sanctions unless Iran actually tested a bomb. And this is exactly what Iran will not do, if the past is a guide to the present. Iran will walk right up to that bright red line but not cross it. It will continue to enrich uranium for bombs, design and build triggering devices, and develop a delivery capability. In a couple of years, Iran, if it needs to, will be able to assemble the pieces for a workable bomb in less than a month, as I'm told.

In other words, Iran will enter the club of nuclear nations with a whimper, not a bang. But at this rate, it will most certainly enter it. Because Gates is right: The United States and its allies simply have no effective cards to play.

None of this is to suggest that our problems with Iran begin and end with nukes. Iran's influence continues to spread across the Middle East with a near inevitability. Two weeks ago, I was in Beirut having dinner with an old friend, a retired Lebanese general who remains a mentor to active officers. He shook his head in disbelief that over the past decade, Iranian-backed Hezbollah has become Lebanon's de facto state. Not only is Hezbollah's militia stronger than the Lebanese Army, Hezbollah in all but name commands the army.

"Today no military commander dares move his unit without first checking with Hezbollah," he told me. In other words, it's folly to think we'll ever persuade Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah and stop the flow of Iranian weapons coming into the country.

Iraq, too, is well on its way to being drawn into Iran's orbit. After the March 7 elections, when it was clear no one was able to form a government, the candidates either went to Tehran or sent an emissary to seek Iran's backing. Even Ayad Allawi, generally considered the American candidate, solicited Iran's support. It was not lost on anyone that no one came to Washington to seek support.

What makes Iran's influence so difficult to contain is that it is subtle, nuanced and cunning. For instance, in Lebanon, Hezbollah is not pushing to establish an Islamic republic, and in fact has gone out of its way to protect the country's Christian minorities. In Iraq, the Iranians are as aware as anyone that the Iraqis distrust Iran and its ambitions, but rather than wanting to be liked, the Iranians are happy to exploit Iraqi divisions and take the role of kingmaker.

We may have forgotten Machiavelli - but the Iranians haven't.

If you add up Lebanon, Iraq and Iran's virtual bomb, you can only conclude that the Middle East is seriously unbalanced, and very well could become more so. There seems to be little standing in Iran's way.

Regime change orchestrated from the outside has always been an illusion, though that hasn't stopped some naive Americans from hawking the idea. And any hope that the regime change could come from within has been killed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' seizing power and crushing the opposition. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the guard corps are firmly in control and do not intend to soften their aggression toward the West.

This leaves the Obama administration in the position of doing nothing and waiting for Iran to make a mistake - like test a bomb. But waiting for this kind of luck does not make for a strong foreign policy. And it begs the question of what Israel, the country most threatened by Iran's rise, will do. Will Israel hold back, ignore Iran's virtual bomb, watch Hezbollah arm and allow Iraq to fall under Iran's shadow?

If you say "yes," you don't know Israel.

Baer, a former CIA agent, is author of "The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower."