Publicly, the President is backing Petraeus in an aggressive military approach; privately, we sense that he is not committed to victory....

Publicly, the President is backing Petraeus in an aggressive military approach; privately, we sense that he is not committed to victory....

President Obumbler will enjoy a significant legislative victory next week when he signs into law a new regulatory framework for the US financial industry. When added to the stimulus package and healthcare reform, this will enable him to claim that he has fulfilled three key undertakings from his campaign agenda. With the BP oil spill seemingly headed toward an earlier-than-expected resolution, White House officials tell us that the mood has lightened there. There is now hope that the Administration will be able to pass at least a slimmed down version of energy reform. Against this, the disconnect between Congressional Democrats and the White House, to which we have earlier drawn attention, is growing. The issue is that, while prospects for the November mid-term elections continue to darken for the Democrats, many political observers believe that Obama himself can gain politically by contrasting himself to an obstructionist Republican majority in Congress, should that emerge in November. The result is that many Democratic representatives will be fighting to protect their own seats rather than to support the President’s agenda. Foreign policy does not provide any relief for Obama. Public support for the Afghan war continues to erode in the wake of rising casualties. In parallel, the appointment of General Petraeus has done little to bridge the substantive differences. Officials hope that Secretary of State Clinton's attendance at the July 20th UN donor conference in Kabul will allow her to clarify US policy. Reduced to its essentials, the divide is between those who want to ‘defeat’ the Taliban and those who aim at containing the situation sufficiently to allow a US drawdown in 2011. The unknown element is Obama’s own stance. As one Pentagon officer commented to us: “Publicly, the President is backing Petraeus in an aggressive military approach; privately, we sense that he is not committed to victory.” As yet, Afghan policy has not surfaced as political ‘wedge’ issue. On the Middle East peace process, however, domestic political calculations are pushing the Administration toward a much more supportive commitment to Israel. Overall, foreign policy continues to stand on the sidelines of the Administration’s priorities, except for the continued catastrophic covert operations of the infamous White House Murder INC, wars, CIA/MOSSAD proxy militias and CIA/MOSSAD spies in Lebanon to counter the growing popularity and success of Hizbollah on the battlefield and in politics..., Pakistan, Iraq and elsewhere....